• Thu. May 30th, 2024

Why is there a strong possibility of BJP forming the government in Tripura for the second time?

The North Eastern States of India Tripura where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power for the first time in 2018, ending the 25-year rule of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM). The BJP formed a government in alliance with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT).

The BJP’s performance in the 2018 assembly elections was impressive, winning 36 seats in the 60-member assembly. The CPIM won just 16 seats, while the IPFT won eight. The BJP’s victory was attributed to several factors, including anti-incumbency against the CPIM government, the BJP’s aggressive campaign, and the consolidation of tribal and Hindu Bengali votes in its favor.

In the 2023 Assembly Elections, the BJP is expected to face a tough challenge from the CPIM-Congress alliance, which is trying to regain its lost ground. The CPIM has been critical of the BJP government’s policies, including its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment and has been organizing protests and rallies against it.

Also last time BJP along with its ally IPFT won 18 seats out of 20 ST reserved seats in the state. But this time the newly emerged Tipra Motha party, led by Bubagra (King) Pradyut Manikya has become a strong challenge for the ruling BJP party.

The outcome of the 2023 assembly elections in Tripura will depend on several factors, including the performance of the BJP government in the state, the popularity of its leaders, the strength of the opposition, and the issues that dominate the election campaign. There is no doubt that anti-incumbency becomes a big challenge this time for the ruling BJP party, especially when it comes to the burning issue of unemployment. Even after that, there are several factors that may help the BJP to win the election for the second time.

Incumbency advantage: The BJP is the incumbent party in Tripura and has been in power since 2018. Incumbent parties often have an advantage in elections as they can showcase their achievements and performance during their tenure in power.

Strong leadership: After Biplab Deb was removed from the post of Chief Minister and handed over the charge of the state to Manik Saha, positive response was noticed among the common people of Tripura and his clean image and public oriented work made him very popular among the common people in a very short period of time. Which gave the BJP a big advantage during the poll campaign.

Weak Opposition : The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM) ruled Tripura for 25 years before being defeated by the BJP in 2018. There may still be very strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the CPIM, which could work in favor of the BJP. Moreover, the weak organization has been a major problem for the CPI(M) and Congress parties. That is why these two arch rivals have been forced to form an alliance to defeat the BJP. On the other hand, although Tipra motha Party has a strong organisational base in the ADC area of the state but their organisational strength outside the ADC area is almost zero.

Support from key communities: The BJP has been successful in gaining support from key communities in Tripura, such as Hindu Bengali community. If the party can maintain this support, it could give them an edge in the election.

National-level factors: The BJP is the ruling party at the national level, and its performance and policies at the national level could influence voters in Tripura. The party’s ability to deliver on its promises at the national level could impact its support in the state.

Government Scheme: The people of Tripura have easily benefited under the rule of BJP government with the benefits of many government schemes like Awas Yojana, Atal Jaldhara Yojana, Free Ration, Social Allowance, Ayusman Card, Sadak Yojana etc. Which was not so easily available during the tenure of the previous Left government. So there is no doubt that, proper implementation of social welfare schemes will work in favour of the ruling BJP party.

Communication: Before 2014, communication in Tripura was very limited. Which became a huge obstacle in the development of this state. But after the Modi government came to the power in 2014, special emphasis was placed on the development of the North East, which resulted in the introduction of broad gauge railway network in Tripura, improvement of only 1 national highway in the state, construction of 8 new national highways and construction of an international standard airport in Agartala. As a result people benefit in terms of communication and this huge change in the communication sector is clearly visible in Tripura today.

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