Train hijackings have been rare even when considered over the past century.No wonder the dramatic hijacking of the Jaffar Express by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has shifted the spotlight once again to the dark and labyrinthine machinations of the deep state of Pakistan in collusion with its all-weather ally – China and tacitly abetted by the US.
Records show that similar train hijacks occurred in May 1977 in the Netherlands, which lasted 20 days. Ofcourse, the famous hijack of the luxurious Peking Express in May 1923 by the Chinese bandits for 37 days happens to be the first recorded train hijack incident. Nevertheless, the Jaffar Express episode highlights the violent outpourings and historical grievances of the people of Balochistan.
Balochistan happens to be the largest of the four provinces of Pakistan covering about 3.5 Lac sq km, (which is 45% of the total land area of Pakistan) and is sparsely populated. The province gained Independence on 15 August 1947(alongside India & Pakistan) too. History is testimony to the fact of the diabolical games played by Jinnah prior to its Independence, which has eventually led to the tinder-box situation prevailing today.
Interestingly, much like the Kashmir situation, Khan of Kallat (Kallat is one of the four provinces of Balochistan and Khan was the then ruler of Kallat) was granted Independence on 15 Aug 1947. Considering the prevailing situation, Khan had sought India’s assistance to stave off the impending Pakistani takeover and was prepared to accede to India (Kashmir redux?). However, India did not extend any support and thus the Pakistani Army forced Khan of Kallat to merge with Pakistan after remaining independent for 227 days (it acceded on 27 Mar 1948). And this sowed the seeds of the Baloch uprising, as we have witnessed ever since, festering for decades.
Now, here are a some of the critical issues which keeps the Balochistan uprising on the boil:
• Its Strategic Geography:
Balochistan derives its name from the majority inhabitants, ie Balochis, who constitute 52% of the population. It has tremendous strategic value, in that, it is located in between Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran, and a coastline of 750 km on the Arabian sea.The Gwadar port now being developed by China( as part of BRI or CPEC) is a 3 -phase project, extending till 2045, with an estimated investment of $ 5 bln. Later the Saudis are expected to invest another 10 bln. Furthermore, the Chabahar port (being developed by India with Iran) is on the same coastline. So, its strategic significance is enormous.
• The Mineral Wealth:
Official statements indicate that Pakistan has mineral reserves of $ 6 tln, of which $1 tln is in Balochistan. This province has enormous deposits of Gold, Copper, Coal, Marble, Titanium, Chromite and Emeralds. Of the 3 major mines, 2 of these are being operated by the Chinese. It is said, that only 5% of the mining revenue is available to the local government and the rest siphoned off by the Pakistani Govt and Chinese conglomerates. This has obviously led to exploitation of the local populace over decades, with almost no pathway to their economic and social growth — leading to seething anger and thus manifesting into ostensible violent uprisings.
• Alienation of the Locals:
History is replete with instances, where forced extraction of the minerals against the wishes of the local communities, have spawned militant groups and eventually spelled doom for the country. Nations with a democratic facade, like Pakistan (with deep state actors playing usurious political games) have consistently upended the genuine development of the local communities, Balochis in this case. This has antagonised the population and is fuelling disquiet and terror activities. Consider this – the literacy rate of Balochistan is 43% compared to Pakistan’s 58%, GDP per capita of Balochistan is half of that of a Pakistani, the HDI of Balochistan is a mere 0.46 compared to that of Pakistan’s 0.54.
So, all in all, these massive disparities in socio-economic indicators have fuelled insurgency-like situation in Balochistan over generations.
This is despite the huge wealth being extracted by the Pak -China conglomerates from mining valuable resources.
So what’s the prognosis?
Well, most of the mining and other developmental contracts are of long lease/ duration, besides even 0% loans to the Pak Govt having been converted to grants by the Chinese Govt, particularly those tied to the CPEC. This umbilical cord is not easy to break, since it suits the powers that be (which includes deep state actors). The recent train hijack incident will possibly force the Govt to ensure some form of visible development projects in the interim and keep the BLA and some restive groups quiet for some time. Only to resurface after a while and thus keep the cycle of violence in motion—as has universally been the case across the globe. With the upheaval in the world geo-political stage currently, the Balochistan knot is unlikely to find a solution anytime soon.
